Oil production is forecast to continue to fall.
Trijana Kartoatmodjo, the Deputy Head of the Upstream Oil and Gas Executing Body (BP Migas), says that daily oil production in Indonesia will continue falling unless new fields are developed. Currently oil production is at 1.1 million barrels per day while demand is at 1.3 million barrels.
Trijana says that oil production is falling by 1.2% a year while oil demand is rising by 1.5%. In 2007 it is estimated that daily production will be at 995,000 barrels, falling in 2008 to 982,000 barrels and falling again in 2009 to 971,000 barrels, while daily consumption of oil in 2007 will likely be at 1,365 million barrels per day, rising in 2008 to 1,443 million barrels and in 2009 to 1,505 million barrels.
BP Migas is therefore hoping to begin drilling of 200 wells between 2007 and 2009. Trijana went on to say that these 200 wells, located in Ambon, Cepu, the northern coast of West Java, Jambi, the Madura Straits and Papua, had the potential to produce 3.8 billion barrels of oil and 17 trillion cubic meters of gas. Trijana said: 
We hope there are new fields. Otherwise, it will difficult to meet domestic energy needs, let alone export.
Meanwhile Andand Bachtiar, a geologist from the Bandung Institute of Technology, raised some doubt about the target of drilling 200 wells between 2007 and 2009.
Are they production wells or exploration wells? If the existing wells have been developed, and the production is increased, it may be up to 200 wells. But if they're exploration [new] wells, then that's nonsense.
Indonesia only recently, in 2004, became a net importer of oil, because of:
declining production and lack of new exploration investment. 
April 3rd 2007. Dody Hidayat of the Oil and Gas Executing Body (BP Migas) says that as of March this year oil production is at 966,449 barrels per day, broken down into 851,719 barrels of oil and 114,730 barrels of condensate. In the 2007 State Budget a target of 1.05 million barrels per day is set out.
Dody said decline in production was a continuing problem and that BP Migas is currently searching for new fields with large reserves.
However BP Migas' Planning Deputy, Achmad Lutfi, says there will be additional oil production coming on line this year, coming from Ujung Pangkah Phase 2 (Hess) North Duri (Chevron), Blok Natuna (ConocoPhillips) and Sepanjang (PT Energi Mega Persada). 
April 26th 2007. Chairman of the Downstream Oil and Gas Regulating Body (BPH Migas), Tubagus Haryono says that Indonesia is no longer an oil-rich country given that Indonesia's oil reserves account for only 0.8% of the world total.
He said Indonesia's current crude oil production was 1,000 MBCD while its exports were 300 million bbl and import 411 million bbl per year. 
It is Andang Bachtiar, by the way, he was once the Association of Indonesian Geologists chairperson, not from ITB.
I agree with Andang. What is important is to find new oil and gas pools, which means, exploration. Is the incentive currently is not attractive that contractors are reluctant to do exploration? The easy targets are all discovered, they need to be replaced by new findings, which are now mostly located in frontier areas, such as eastern Indonesia.
There are now lots of new small companies around which are more aggressive in exploring. But there are also companies that acts like a broker and do not fulfill the contract given. BPMigas, or Migas, should know which one is serious and which one is not.
Drilling 200 wells for exploration as Andang said, is impossible. If it is production wells, it might increase the production, but it will not replace what has been produced. More exploration should be done, terms of the PSC, TAC and JOB needs to be revisited and make a more attractive package. This discussion actually has been going on since the late 90s between the petroleum geologists. There should be a chart of how many exploration wells has been drilled and which ones are the succcessful ones.
As a geologist, I believe there are new hydrocarbon plays that are not tested yet. It is getting more challenging to find new oil and gas, maybe the regulations should be revisited and make it more attractive to invite investors to explore in this country.