A survey says over a third of Indonesian Muslims desire an Islamic state, while half don’t, among other things.

There have been very many reports in the local and international press about this survey, trumpeting how “moderate” Indonesians are. However when looking at the results, and the way the questions were asked, closely, the story is not as bright as some believe.

The survey, carried out by the Indonesian Survey Circle, was done across 33 provinces from 28th July to 3rd August 2006, with 700 respondents, margin of error 3.8%.

86.5% of respondents were Muslim, 8.2% Protestant, 3.6% Catholic, 1.4% Hindu, 0.1% Buddhist, 0.2% other.

Questions

Which is the ideal political system for Indonesia, western (like America/Europe), or like an Islamic country in the middle east, or Pancasila?

The ideal political system for Indonesia was thought to be Pancasila by 69.6% while 11.5% plumped for a middle eastern/Islamic system, and 3.5% for a western model. 13% were clueless, 1% said all three were just the same, and 1.1% said none of the above.

Results broken down by sex, religion, etc.

Category	Western	Middle Eastern	Pancasila
All	3.5%	11.5%	69.6%
By Sex
Men	4.6%	10%	71.6%
Women	2.6%	12.9%	67.7%
By Religion
Muslims	2.8%	13.1%	67.4%
Christians	9.8%	0.0%	81.7%
Others	0.0%	9.1%	90.9%
By Political Party Affiliation
PD	2.9%	8.6%	71.4%
PKB	0.0%	10.3%	66.7%
PPP	0.0%	37.9%	55.2%
PDI-P	8.6%	2.9%	79%
Golkar	0.7%	13.7%	74.1%
PKS	4.3%	30.4%	43.5%
PAN	0.0%	5.6%	77.8%
By Religious Organisation Membership
NU	1.7%	12.2%	73.8%
Muhammadiyah	4%	12%	76%
Other	7.7%	19.2%	65.4%
None	3.3%	13.7%	62%

This first question is fairly well-asked although it is unknown what exactly is in the minds of people when they think about such things. Perhaps, in general terms we can think of the three options like this, in an Indonesian context –

• western = non religious
• middle-eastern = religious but Islamic
• Pancasila = religious but diverse

It is also likely that the mention of two foreign systems, in juxtaposition with a uniquely Indonesian one, Pancasila, plays on the respondents’ sense of nationalism, one reason for the high figures for Pancasila.

The next (very loaded) question:

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement, considering that Indonesia is a state under Pancasila which protects religious diversity – The best law to be applied in Indonesia is the national law which guarantees religious diversity not Islamic law.

64.3% agreed or strongly agreed, 19.3% (somewhat “courageously”, given the question) disagreed or strongly disagreed, 16.5% did not know.

Category	Agree	Disagree	Don’t Know
By Religion
Muslims	61.7%	21.7%	16.7%
Christians	78.5%	3.8%	17.7%
Others	90.9%	0.0%	9.1%
By Political Party Affiliation
PD	64%	16.5%	19.5%
PKB	63.2%	7.9%	28.9%
PPP	50%	28.6%	21.4%
PDI-P	75%	14.4%	10.6%
Golkar	69.6%	20.3%	10.1%
PKS	54.2%	37.5%	8.3%
PAN	52.6%	31.6%	15.8%
By Religious Organisation Membership
NU	68%	18%	14%
Muhammadiyah	56%	28%	16%
Other	53.8%	30.8%	15.4%
None	60.1%	22.3%	17.6%

Next question – Do you agree or disagree if laws are passed in your area that forbid alcohol, gambling, and/or prostitution?

Alcohol – 88% agreed, 7.4% disagreed, 4.6% don’t know.
Gambling – 89.9% agreed, 5.1% disagreed, 5% don’t know.
Prostitution – 88.4% agreed, 6.8% disagreed, 4.8% don’t know.

Perhaps the questioners were not very happy with the above results so they asked the question again, but this time in a leading way: Do you agree or disagree, considering that Indonesia under Pancasila protects religious diversity, that no more anti-sin laws need to be passed by regional governments because the national law already deals with such matters?

53% agreed, 24.3% (heroically) disagreed, 22.7% were too confused by such a long question, or didn’t know.

Do you agree or disagree, considering that Indonesia under Pancasila protects religious diversity, that what needs to be done in terms of improving people’s morality is the upholding of the [existing, national] law rather than the making of regional laws based on sharia?

61% agreed, 17.3% disagreed, 21.7% didn’t know.

Do you agree or disagree with the view that the government has to make laws dealing with [Islamic] matters of inheritance, donations of land/money to religious organisations, and the pilgrimage to Mecca.

Inheritance – 58.5% agreed, 25.5% disagreed, 16% don’t know.
Religious Donations – 59.5% agreed, 21.5% disagreed, 19% don’t know.
Haj – 75.5% agreed, 9.1% disagreed, 15.5% don’t know.

Do you agree or disagree with these views?

• The government must punish Muslims who do not dress in a Muslim way (like wearing the headscarf). – 12.5% yes, 77.3% no, 15.6% not sure.
• Thieves should have their hand cut off. – 24.5%, 67.5%, 8.0%
• Drinkers should be caned. – 34.9%, 6.4%, 8.7%
• Adulterers should be stoned to death. – 27.8%, 63.3%, 8.9%
• Apostates should be executed. – 17.0%, 71.2%, 11.8%

Do you agree or disagree that Indonesia should become an Islamic state?

In comparison to the first question, on Pancasila, this question likely plays on the respondents’ sense of religious identity, and hence one reason for the contrasting results.

34.6% agree, 54.9% disagree, 10.5% don’t know.

By categories:

Category	Agree	Disagree	Don’t Know
By Religion
Muslims	39.4%	49.5%	11.1%
Christians	3.8%	88.8%	7.5%
Others	9.1%	90.9%	0.0%
By Political Party Affiliation
PD	32.8%	55.5%	11.7%
PKB	30.8%	51.3%	17.9%
PPP	51.7%	44.8%	3.4%
PDI-P	22.1%	72.1%	5.8%
Golkar	32.6%	61.6%	5.8%
PKS	62.5%	25%	12.5%
PAN	38.9%	55.6%	5.6%
By Religious Organisation Membership
NU	38.8%	49.8%	11.5%
Muhammadiyah	52%	44%	4%
Other	44%	36%	20%
None	38.3%	51.3%	10.3%

The next question asks whether groups such as the Islam Defenders’ Front (FPI) and others have the right to take the law into their own hands.

How far do you agree with these statements?

• Because the police already have the responsibility mass organisations should not be allowed to carry out raids on places that sell alcohol. – 63.3% agree, 25.1% disagree, 11.6% don’t know.
• Because the police already have the responsibility mass organisations should not be allowed to carry out raids on places of prostitution. – 60.8%, 27.9%, 11.3%.
• Because the police already have the responsibility mass organisations should not be allowed to carry out raids on places of gambling. – 61.5%, 26.7%, 11.8%.
• Because the police already have the responsibility mass organisations should not be allowed to carry out raids against churches that do not have permission to operate. – 61.6%, 25.9%, 12.5%.

Are you worried that the promulgation of regional Islamic laws will cause the disintegration of the nation?

61.4% worried, 17.6% not worried, 21.0% don’t know.

The results broken down:

Category	Worried	Not Worried	Don’t Know
By Religion
Muslims	59.7%	19.8%	20.5%
Christians	69.5%	2.4%	28.1%
Others	90.9%	9.1%	0.0%
By Political Party Affiliation
PD	62.6%	17.3%	20.1%
PKB	51.3%	20.5%	28.2%
PPP	52.2%	24.1%	20.7%
PDI-P	73.1%	12.5%	14.4%
Golkar	64.7%	16.5%	18.7%
PKS	47.8%	43.5%	8.7%
PAN	63.2%	26.3%	10.5%
By Religious Organisation Membership
NU	68.3%	15.7%	16.1%
Muhammadiyah	64%	20%	16%
Other	46.2%	30.8%	23.1%
None	56.5%	20.9%	22.6%

The Director of the LSI, Denny J.A., said:

This survey shows that Indonesian Muslim society is moderate and that the political conditions in Indonesia are also moderate.

Probably this proposition was what was in his mind from the start and this survey is the fruit of his endeavour to prove it.

On the pro-Pancasila numbers he said that this meant that Indonesians favoured a uniquely Indonesian system, rather than a foreign one.

The results here can be compared with earlier, similar, and more professional surveys by the other LSI – Support for Sharia & Islamic Radicalism (17th March 2006) and Love Thy Neighbour (10th August 2006).