Doubts raised over president Yudhoyono’s ability to win re-election,.. and an IM voter poll.
While the pairing of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Boediono (SBY-Boediono or SBY Berboedi) of Partai Demokrat is considered a strong favourite against rivals Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto (JK-Win) and Megawati Soekarnoputri-Prabowo Subianto (Megabowo or Megapro) some within Demokrat’s main coalition partner the Justice Party/Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) are having doubts over SBY’s re-electability.
[poll id=”4″]
Party Deputy Secretary, the ever talkative Zulkieflimansyah, says:
If you look at recent surveys the three pairs are close together, the difference between first and third is only 10%.
Zulkieflimansyah did not mention what surveys he was referring to but likely it was internal PKS polling.
Zulkieflimansyah
Nevertheless the SBY-Boediono ticket remained the most popular, and this he said was the primary reason that the PKS had chosen to join in coalition with Partai Demokrat, because SBY had the best chance of winning. kompas
Before 1997 currency crisis, interest rates in indonesia was too high, forcing local businesses to borrow in USD and other foreign money. Similarly in Malaysia and Thailand, although interest rates were far higher in indonesia.
The result was a full fledged currency attack, which caused the downfall of suharto, and the takeover of indonesian assets by foreigners forced upon by IMF, in return for USD40 billion in loan.
More than ten years later, similar story. Interest rates are still too high and businesses are taking loan in foreign currencies, making them susceptible to currency fluctuations. INDOFOOD being the latest victim.
Any President/govenrment that can stabilise currency fluctuation and lower interest rates thereby decrease inflation and cost of doing businesse, which should benefit the consumers/citizens, should get the vote.
So far, nobody has come up with this formula.
So far SBY-Boediono feels more promising than the others.
* 2000 : Rp 1234 triliun
* 01 : Rp 1273 triliun [sblmnya 1263 T]
* 02 : Rp 1225 triliun [sblumnya Rp 1249 T]
* 03 : Rp 1232 triliun [sblumnya Rp 1240 T]
* 04 : Rp 1299 triliun [sblumnya Rp 1275 T]
* 05 : Rp 1313 triliun [sblumnya 1268 T]
* 06 : Rp 1302 triliun [sblumnya 1310 T]
* 07 : Rp 1389 triliun [sblumnya 1387 T]
* 08 : Rp 1637 triliun [sblumnya 1623 T]
* 2009 : Rp 1700 (31 Maret)
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Turns out our beloved President himself isn’t clean of riot cases…….
As for Prabowo his name has been CLEARED and no evidence to say that he was to blame for 98 riots……
Only god knows….
Rika said:
As for Prabowo his name has been CLEARED and no evidence to say that he was to blame for 98 riots……
There’s considerable evidence that he orchestrated the initial violent demonstration outside CSIS. The subsequent riots, though, were not likely something he personally orchestrated.
But this is small beans compared to the still unanswered questions about East Timor and Aceh.
Oh, and the official inquiry hardly “cleared” Prabowo. It concluded that KOPASSUS “likely instigated” the May 1998 riots and “recommended the court-martial” of Prabowo.
Mawan,
the fact that in indo the chance for businesses to be success is much lower compared to many other countries such as US, australia, etc… i saw the statistic that compared the business risks in many countries and it shows that in indo the business risks are much, much higher compared to many countries (including thailand).
I totally disagree. The chance of small businesses to be success in Indonesia is actually quite high compare to the US, Thailand, etc. The statistic obviously ignoring the fact that the competition level in Indonesia is quite low and thus plenty of space for new businesses to grow; we don’t have multinational companies like Wal-Mart who constantly monopolize the market and wipe off small businesses here in Indonesia.
What scarce off the foreign investors is in fact the political risk rather than business risk. Investors mainly from develop countries will find it out of the ordinary when they encounter KKN, security issues, and the dumb people who put “Haram” label on everything that’s too complicated for them to understand. Indeed, Indonesia is more than suitable to start small business but not big investments (which is apparently opposite from what we need)
Come guys, go at it again! Its people need to decide who they go for. Its only a week away. Give it all you got. @Boediono Tweets btw.
Prabowo himself admitted that he was responsible for the kidnapping of activists in 98. Cynically, he said, “under some governments this would be called preemptive detention”. Face it, Prabowo is anything but clean.
Regarding 1998 incidents and background I recommend reading Marcus Mietzner’s book: Military Politics, Islam, and the State in Indonesia: From Turbulent Transition to Democratic Consolidation
Comment le Hawker frère-frère alimentaire vendeurs qui n’avait jamais donné d’extension s’est engagé à vendre des aliments sains et propres, comme les boulettes de viande, etc? Ne pas délibérément donné conservateurs tels que le borax, etc? Avez-beau-frère, frère frère auto-honnête et pas un plouc comme les plus typiques de l’Indonésie? Faites attention à manger des boulettes de viande, shaomai et d’autres. Voir cette bouteille de sauce. Yudhoyono n’a pas de soins de tout cela? Voir la sauce sauce de production en usine comme la sauce tomate maison et le piment et l’autre dans des bouteilles brunes ou vertes, sale. Dit que les gens qui vivent près de l’usine, de gros réservoirs ont été ajoutés à plusieurs sauces papaye pour réduire le nombre de matériaux de base, les tomates et le piment, ce qui est assez cher, et il ya beaucoup de cafards et de rats, mais directement insérée dans l’usine de cafards et les souris qui sont morts. Ils ont dit “laissez-moi ajouter délicieux.” Cet exemple montre qu’il n’y a pas lieu de continuer à diriger le gouvernement de SBY quitté l’État. Gouvernement pour l’instant aucun mandat, et n’a pas dit aux autorités locales de surveiller l’hygiène alimentaire. SBY aurait dû être destitué, mais malheureusement, la Chambre des Représentants et itunya membanci ne peux pas supporter. Il doit non seulement sauce Tabasco usine, les usines et autres entreprises ont été autorisés à marcher comme dans la jungle si elle n’est pas auto-administration d’État. Vous voulez vendre, et de tromper tout, doit. Annoncez produits amplificateur sexe, tels que Free Clinic, qui utilise des artistes avides, et ainsi de suite. Beaucoup de Deh, le gouvernement fou parce que le président est faible et ne peut être perspicace ainsi. Avaient vécu et étudié dans le pays, l’Oncle Sam ne veut pas dire comprendre, parce que le président venait d’apprendre sur le militaire n’est pas d’être un bon président. Chose encore plus étrange, nous tous en tant que société qu’il reste au pouvoir, parce qu’ils pensent qu’il est bon, juste à l’extérieur ou l’apparence de la peau en face de la télévision.
Je pense vraiment que le ministère de la santé n’est pas fait du bon travail parce qu’elles sont plus occupées à des produits qui sont achetés et vendus sur le comptoir, comme un supermarché et de même.
Ils devraient adopter une approche plus sérieuse à la santé publique, car qui va directement au grand public. Pour exemples, le Padang Nasi où ces aliments étaient simplement placés sur la table dans la cuisine et ceux qui ont été consommés étaient charge étant alors que le restant ont été repris et où la prochaine customre vient qu’ils apportent à ceux qui restent de nouveau les aliments et l’ensemble processus au cours de la journée peut-être sur plusieurs jours.
Cette portion de la nourriture est grave et ne devrait pas se produire à n’importe quelle collectivité civiliser. American servir un buffet où vous prenez la nourriture sur votre propre, mais toutes les deux heures les aliments doit être démoli.
Le seul point important est de savoir comment le gouvernement, en particulier le ministre de la Santé pour que ces serveurs Padang aliments pour changer une autre méthode de service des aliments.
De même les marchands ambulants poussant leurs chariots dans la vente de denrées alimentaires devrait être empêché de servir des aliments. Imaginez qu’ils avaient une charrette avec un seau d’eau et un vêtement sale pour essuyer la vaisselle après avoir rincer à l’eau.
Ils mettent beaucoup de gens à risque.
Hi Chris,
Am I wrong to say that you were one of those that campaigned for Wiranto? And I also suppose you were also trying to say it’s THE DEVIL IN THE MAKING, when it comes to SBY presidency and his 5 years accomplishments?
How may I asked, how well you know Wiranto? How he rose to become the adjundant of Soeharto and how he conspire with the Blow Job Habibie during Soeharto impeachment? And of course how well do you know Megawati?
Honestly I am well aware of the Sukarno’s family members who were in business from his garment factory to fishery license etc.
You have said
“For the last 5 years, he has never balanced his budget (APBN), not even a single year.”
Can you balance a budget for Indonesia trying to cope with IMF, World Bank and putting the country back after the damages caused by the riot? I did say when Mariam Goeltom replaces Burhanuddin the same problem will still remain within the treasury. I was right. I did say what will happened to Ani and indeed it happened and in order to save face for the Indonesian Government she was quietly told to assume the post at IMF. I also said Boediono was too soft because he is too academic. But nonetheless, despite her involvements with the Bank Century’s Scandal she manage to provide some consolation by putting a number of people in trouble for corruption.
“For the last 5 years, Indonesia’s debts are getting bigger, where domestic debts are catching up and now bigger than foreign debts. Prior to 1997, Indonesia domestic debts are virtually Zero or, very small.”
Well if you know how to balance and restructure. Prior to 1997 it was small because the currency had not devalued much except for that devaluation from 500 to 1000/USD. Well you have to blame Wiranto for this ggod job he did ochestrating the riot inspiring Prabowo to collude with Syafrie Samsuddin. Many corporate fell, builldings destroyed debt unpaid, too much owed from lending from banks to BI, too much money wasted to cushion the rupiahs and preventing it from fallin further, and so on. Of course it will get bigger and bigger and very little growth and export. Tell me what was Indonesian GDP, export etc that I had predicted earlie to be Zero in the making. Lets face it with real figures and not just paper work. I am good with my figures so to say at least. Does that shows that Soeharto was smarter with foreign lending? Lets put the corruption aside. It is like carrying a big sack of rice with a hole in the sack.
“SBY claims to have paying off debts $7.6 billion with IMF, which is true. But in doing so, he created over $17 billion new domestic debts in BONDS or, known as SUN (Surat Utang Negara).”
This is also what the US is doing and big time, so what’s wrong with that? Since no money is coming in or in the making, how are you able to create funds for APBN.
SBY is relying too much on people like, Jusuf Kalla, Fadel Muhamad of Bukaka and that ABU. If without these people around, SBY could easily put up those concessions to public and foreigners and channel more funds.
“He was not robbing Paul to Peter; he was like robbing ACHONG-ACHONG in Indonesia to pay Peter. He robbed much bigger in value about 2.5 times than the amount he paid off.”
You are implying that he is not robbing IMF to pay Indonesia, but he is robbing Indonesians, especially pribumis, to pay Indonesia? More polite to say by referring ACHONG-ACHONG! For a population fo 250 million and more, just imagine then size.
“During the last 5 years, there is an average of Rp. 255 trillion Rupiah surplus in export every year. If we multiply that in 5 years, Indonesia shall have at least Rp. 1,275 trillion Rupiah reserved-funds or, Bank Devisa Negara. Recently, BI (Bank Indonesia) stated that Indonesia had only Rp. 501 trillion Rupiah sisa devisa negara. Where did the other Rp.774 trillion Rupiah go? This happened during SBY and Boediono watch. ”
Educate me when you say the 774 trillion disappear. Yes there were huge loopholes where it was caused by human action and that is corruption, but I suppose it is not as bad right! But you find it explorable. How about paying for Lapindo Brantas for example. How about depreciation against foreign currency for instance. How about the strengthening of the rupiahs for instance. How about bailing out banks. etc. If the list were to be drawn into a book, it will scare the shit out of you. There is someone I knew that just returned to US early this year after remaining in Indonesia for one year understanding Indonesia’s political problems. His research is far mre scarier than that carried out by the US DOS so that you know.
Based on your thoughts which are mostly based on paper value. To understand about the super structure on CC and DD it is far more complicated thatn what Goeltom can think or Ani can come up with.
“That is why the road in Bandung just like bule madrotter said: has been neglected because the lack of funds.”
These already happened during Soeharto’s time not recent and you blamed
“That is one of President SBY’s legacies.”
“Look at how he reacted in response to rise of fuel price. He raised domestic fuel price concurrently in his anticipation to compensate his potentially monstrous budget deficit (APBN).”
So that is not logical?
“Then when the fuel price went down, he re-acted it again to lower the domestic fuel price to calm down his people. So, his policy is again within the scope of following and re-acting the market.”
So this is also not logical?
“To me, that is not a true and great leader. A true leader will make a policy and execute the policy to LEAD the market, to influence the market and not to follow or re-act the market. For the last 5 years, that is how I saw President SBY did. He carefully took his time to react and followed the market.”
President Abdulrahman Wahid pass a decree to ban the discrimination of Chinese, invoke Chinese education, no more SBKRI…What happened.
So if SBY passed a decree to suppress that what will Pertamina’s reaction? What will Aceh react to that? What willhappened to production in Balikpapan?
Yes of course the list will go on….but when you see the actual fact it will scare the shit out of you. Indonesia is facing a far bigger problem than they are right now. So if you were the president, what will you do? Make another decree and go to deaf ears?
“One good news for SBY though, the majority of Indonesia people do not care with the details. Secondly, there are continuing efforts by SBY and his Presidential team members to conceal these facts from public discussion. That is very helpful for SBY and enhances his chance to win the next Presidential election unless….”
Well some people who thinks that they are a little better educated feels that they know a lot by making such summary based on paper value, but I think otherwise.
“Re-electing SBY is at best maintaining status quo. I don’t know about you, but I want to see a change, significant change in Indonesia. For the last 5 years, SBY hasn’t yet delivered any significant change! What makes you think that he will do differently for the next 5 years?”
I also had earlier said 5 years is insufficient for a President to do anything with a cuntry this big and the population that large and massive problems in eradicating corruptions.
I have been staying away and adopt a wait and see on Indonesia’s development. also have been watching your comments from bad to worse ever finding an opportunity to lobby for Wiranto.
Perhaps there is a seat waiting to be warmed up.
You claimed to be patriotic to Indonesia, then how come there is that much question and no solution? You claimed also to be somebody in the US at whatever country or city? Show me something that you know that can resolve Indonesia’s problem and forget ab0ut lobbying for Wiranto or Prabowo. Or is that worth your while!
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I don’t care who is elected as long as it is not SBY…… I have been living here for 4 years and Indonesia isn’t getting better…….
As for the achievements that VP JK has claimed for…. well they are true (correct???) SBY as president only signed for them where as JK did the hard work.
As for human Rights??? How about the rights for 40 Million voters that didn’t get to vote??? I am sure many of you had family or friends that didn’t get a chance to vote. Funny thing is, me being an expatriate got an invitation……. This did not happen in 2004. Yet it has been said that in 2004 was the most democratic, clean, fair election of all………
How about the natural disasters from the beginning of SBY time??? The falling apart of Indonesian military??? Indonesia in debt more and more so the government can subsidised for the needy?????