Indonesia Currency Exchange Rate

Mar 24th, 2009, in Business & Economy, by

The prospects for Indonesia and the rupiah facing the global economic problems of 2009.

The current financial crisis has given rise to two trends tending to strengthen the once weak US dollar almost across the board, they being

  • risk-shy American investors seek the safety of home shores and repatriate millions of dollars
  • foreign banks, especially Chinese, invest in ‘safe’ US Treasury bills

This exacerbates problems around the world, as lending capital is sucked into America and becomes even more scarce elsewhere.

Says Eswar Prasad, a former official at the International Monetary Fund and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution:

This is the third wave of the financial crisis. Low-income countries are getting hit very hard. The flow of private capital to the emerging market has dried up.

In the late 1990’s economic crisis in Asia as currencies fell in countries such as Indonesia demand for their (now very cheap) exports in developed countries remained strong, providing an export driven lifeline and path to recovery for the nation, as well as for Thailand.

However this time weak currencies are in tandem with falling demand for exports, putting developing countries in a very vulnerable position. In January 2009 year on year Indonesian exports fell over $5 billion in value from $12.5 billion to $7.1 billion (although imports also fell massively).

Eastern Europe is worst affected with a number of countries there thought to be on the brink of defaulting on their debt, while Eswar Prasad includes Indonesia in his list of next most at risk countries, from, again, these three factors:

  • constricted credit and capital supply
  • weak currency
  • weak demand for export goods

the others being Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Pakistan and Ecuador.

Any debt default in Indonesia, or at least the prospect of one in people’s minds, would cause chaos in rupiah exchange rates. nytimes

Meanwhile Mirza Adityaswara, Chief Economist Bank Mandiri Group, applauds Bank Indonesia’s policy of restricting dollar purchases of over $100,000, without an underlying transaction, as a way of defending the rupiah, which in recent days has come back from its lows of around 12,000 to the dollar.

He also suggests Indonesia needs to learn from Malaysia and Thailand, and wonders whether the much smaller fall in their currencies is due to their stronger system of foreign exchange controls, or the underlying strength of their tourism industries and their openness to foreign investment.

He also suggests these two countries are better at ensuring that the proceeds of US$ denominated export sales are actually banked in-country, whereas in Indonesia there is likely to be a big shortfall if comparing port shipment dollar value records and amounts deposited in local banks. kompas


38 Comments on “Indonesia Currency Exchange Rate”

  1. TheWrathOfGrapes says:

    BK – interesting, but it is just that. The business cycle is a fraction of that, and is getting shorter. Also, in the internet age, you don’t need to have personal experience or long memory to know about stock market busts anywhere in the world. Lastly, not all fund managers start work on the same day, and their experience are spread out.

  2. Burung Koel says:

    Lastly, not all fund managers start work on the same day, and their experience are spread out.

    Yeah, I know. But I think the ’30 year period’ means that after that time, despite teh range of experience, there is no-one left in the office who can remember the last crash.

  3. Burung Koel says:

    Idiot. “teh” = “the”

    Damn arrogance in not using the preview function.

  4. sputjam says:

    This one I got from the herectic press.
    The regulation of usury was to prevent the separation of money from reality. Money is not a good, it is a measure. It is fraud to pretend otherwise, and constitutes theft. Usury is making money from lending money; it is making money from nothing. This is exactly what is happening today on a colossal scale.

    Banking, after all, is in the business of making money from nothing, i.e. using client’s deposit or issuing bonds to make more money, which is then circulated to make even more money from nothing, such as speculating in forex and commodities or giving loans.

    I am not sure if the chicks are for free.

  5. shorty says:

    It’s fascinating reading the diagnoses and prognoses of amateur economists ( of which i’m one).

    A couple of quotes come to mind…

    An economist is someone who examines goat’s entrails, the deeper you look the more shit you find……

    On christopher columbus and the discovery of america…he didn’t know where he was going when he left, didn’t know where he was when he got there, and didn’t know where he’d been wnhen he got back….

    A financial analyst has one of the most secure jobs………everyone expects him to get it wrong.

    Let’s face it, we had the ‘key’ we wouldn’t be blogging. We’d be in London being paid a squillion.

  6. Mr Tic Tac Toe says:

    @DW, if youre still around:

    http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/04/07/14020773/Giliran.Perusahaan.Tambang.Minta.Bunga.Bank.Turun

    Need your wisdom to comment on that, please.

  7. dragonwall says:

    @ Tic Tac Toe

    Perusahaan tambang yang tergabung dalam Asosiasi Pertambangan Batu Bara Indonesia (APBI) mengharapkan perbankan nasional segera menurunkan suku bunga menyusul makin turunnya BI Rate.

    One simple explanation why they are asking for the drop.

    Why? They are out of cash flow.

    Reason being lack of buyer or no willing investor amidst dropping rupiah and rising cost.

    The bank cannot simply drop the rate just to pacify someone for one that reason. The bank must stay on top because they are the only source of fund. And they cannot risk themselves on the private factor.

    A lender must be ensured that they get repaid back before a loan is made. By dropping the rate it means that anyone can make a loan because it becomes soft but when it comes a time to repay they went into default, so what are the banks going to do? Foreclosure, Bankruptcy, Sita and all the same lagu lama.

    On the other hands the rupiahs weakening against the weak dollar and since nothing could be done to the rupiah therefore hyperinflation is bound to set in to cover the cost.

    Direktur Eksekutif APBI Supriyatna Suhala di Jakarta, Selasa (7/4), mengatakan, sekarang ini perbankan cenderung tidak segera menurunkan suku bunga mengikuti BI Rate yang kini sudah 7,5 persen. “Kami harapkan perbankan segera ikuti penurunan suku bunga BI Rate,” katanya.

    If he really knows something about banking instruments and the usage then he should not be making the public statement as no one will heed what he says, I lay a bet on that. Not even with his influence. He can even launch a strike or protest till his members all close down and nothing will happen. He is referring to a spread of 4-5 percent!

    Which bank does a spread this wide? And for what? He is thinking that banking is about 4-5 percent in profit. No, he doesn’t know a thing about this, so lets be reminded that it will not drop, that is if Indonesia want to stay afloat and I am sure nowadays bank are beginning to get smart.

    The only way they could do is to do an individual negotiation with the bank on a certain viable project at hand with a firm order and whatever they are doing coupled with a set proposed window time on the return of investment that carries a leverage of no less than 20 percent. Otherwise he needs to do private syndication.

    He mentioned usually loans were made from foreign country and lately the loans were made onshore.

    Offshore banking has it own standard procedures. A foreign bank will enter the picture when there is a buyer who had contracted with Indonesian local mine for a certain coal export. Such contracted export is usually made with a forward loan when after the buyer demanded a performance bond from the local exporter and after the exporter’s banker had established a letter of guarantee on performance based on his site deposit in the bank or their previous credentials, otherwise there still is no deal.

    So are they still thinking that by saying most of the local exporters are turning to onshore banking meaning that the bank must loan them the money? The answer is still no, no matter they are the first or the 100 generation. The banks only understand figures and nothing else.

    In the near future I doubted the bank will drop their rates because BI needs them to stand firm on that in order for them to help Indonesia boost the rupiahs’s buoyancy. Otherwise the rupiahs will continue to spiral downward.

    The keyword is still PRUDENCE AND CREDENTIALS.

  8. diego says:

    Hey dw, hao jiu bu jian!

    I just want to congratulate you for the improvement of your writing technique.

    Felicidades!

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