Election Opinion Poll Results

Nov 20th, 2008, in News, by

Early pre-election opinion poll results have president Yudhoyono’s Partai Demokrat leading the way.

An in-depth election poll by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) carried out in late October-early November (with parties’ possible presidential candidates, if any, added):

  • Partai Demokrat (Yudhoyono) – 16.8%
  • Golkar (Jusuf Kalla & Sultan Hamengku Buwono) – 15.9
  • PDIP (Megawati) – 14.2
  • PKS – 4.9
  • PKB – 4.6
  • Gerindra (Prabowo) – 3.7
  • PAN – 3.2
  • PPP – 3.1
  • PPDK – 1.2
  • Hanura (Wiranto) – 1.1
  • PBR – 0.9
  • PKNU – 0.8
  • PDS – 0.7
  • PMB – 0.7

A quarter of respondents gave no answer.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, popular.

Tifatul Sembiring of the Justice Party/Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) said his party targeted 20% in 2009 and was busily preparing more television commercials (see PKS Political Ads) to woo more voters.

Tifatul Sembiring, hopeful.

He said 34% of survey respondents were recipients of direct government assistance (Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) and Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS)), and such people would naturally be favourable to president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. vivanews

9 Comments on “Election Opinion Poll Results”

  1. Rambutan says:

    …and we should add that according to the latest polls SBY is leading by 12% in a head-to-head race vs Megawati. I hope SBY can win re-election. Five years under Megawati would be disastrous.

  2. shorty says:

    The poll is meaningless.

    LSI typically polls around 1200-1500 people over 30+ provinces. For a country as diverse as ri this is too low. Even more questionable if the claims about bos and blt are true.

    More importantly it doesn’t take into account the new presidential election laws.

    In order to field a presidential candidate, a political party or bloc of parties must win a quarter of the votes in the April parliamentary elections, or one fifth of the seats.

    On the current lsi poll no-one automaticaly qualifies…a coalition is required.

    An interesting thought – what if mega realised her own limitations and capabilities, but offered pdip support in return for the vice presidency?

    If I were sby, kalla or hamengkubuwono i’d be courting the lady.

    If I were mega, I’d be offering my support in return for political support for pdip policies.

  3. Purba Negoro says:

    Actually, the five years under Megawati saw a return of all projects to help the poor- including free extended education and the “dua anak cukup” two-child policy for population control.
    Public health programs including Mid-wife training, sexual health, mental health and hygiene were all again restarted.

    Indonesian control of territory was restored- and GAM crushed allowing peace finally for Aceh- so desperately needed development of society can commence there.

    Furthermore- agricultural training was re-instigated- leading to the position now where Indonesia is food nett self-sustaining.
    There are some minor importation issues which can be easily resolved by simple measures such as implementing better tarpaulin to collect rice so there is less wastage.
    10% wastage at point of harvest equates to millions of tons nationally- more than the gross rice importation amount.

    All these Yayasan Marhaenisme concepts were stolen as a SBY concept.
    The re are some shining stars of the SBY cabinet- including Sri Mulyani.

    I predict a Golkar, Partai DEmokrat PDI-P coalition for a centre rightist government.
    Perhaps Ibu Mega, maybe Prabowo, unlikely Wiranto- and the other ethnics will not be so enthused about a Javanese sultan.
    I doubt SBY will return- he has a very sizeable Western funded retirement fund waiting for him.

  4. Rambutan says:

    These polls are by no way meaningless. The number of respondents is enough to come to pretty accurate numbers. Margin of error is usually 1-2%. What makes predictions difficult is the large amount of undecided voters. And the situation can change quickly, largely dependent on the economy.

    Mega has made it clear that she will not accept the post as Vice President. And she would never ever enter into a coalition with SBY. She hates him for ‘betraying’ and defeating her in 2004.

    I predict a continuation of the SBY-Kalla ticket. If not Kalla, SBY might chose a PKS figure as VP. Mega will go for a moderate Muslim or the Sultan as VP candidate. And possibly we will see a third candidate: Sultan, Prabowo, Wiranto?? Difficult to say at this stage. Depends on the outcome of the April legislative elections and what the smaller parties are up to.

  5. ronald says:

    I will vote for PDS…………….just feel sorry (kasihan aja) about this party.

  6. dragonwall says:

    Hamengku Buwono! Unlikely with JK.

    Beware of the JK dirty politic. If a person uses money to buy himself a place in politic, then he is not a politician. Moreover people like JK, does he really knows what is politic besides being whispered in the ears on what to say.

    The crucial criteris of a President of a country must have an unblemish background, good education, good knowledge or backing of the military, between 45 to 55 of age. Preferrably a person that possess knowledge of the country’s legal system.

    The Vice President should be someone who has both military and economic background. His capacity is to assist the President in implementing decree and ensure all system conform to legislation. Not someone like JK always tries to be outspoken and show off.

    Honestly I think YUSRIL, WIRANTO and PRABOWO must not be elected. If they are then I can only say that the Indonesian future will be as bleak as ever or even worst.
    People thought to have orchestrated and who have been involved in the 1998 riot will not get any support from foreign countries. Ultimately SBY is still the only suitable choice.

    Before Soeharto fell, there were many people besides him like Gus Dur had advice him not to continue his fateful term but he refuesed and was adamant on that. I am unsure what happened but something occured that had Ibu Tien killed. If Soeharto had stepped down and name a successor, he would have stepped down gracefully like a national hero. His choice was Habibie at that time until the riot, but the better choice for his would have been Sudharmono or Try Sutrisno when they were trimming Try’s son in law. Until the powere erupted from within ABRI.

    I used to see Hartono when he was a KASAD visiting Surabays almost every alternate weekends at the Westin.

    If it had been Try and or Sudharmo then 1998 riot might not have happened and Indonesia would not have plunge herself into such a undignified predicament. Indonesia might have been today on top of the world super economic power.

    After Malaysia’s Twin Tower came Shanghai ACT tower and was supposed to be followed by Indonesia Menara.

    All other political parties are playing those “get a seat and grab more money” kind of game play. It is doubted very much of their capabilities.

    When Mega stepped in, she made several changes but still she was bugged with scandals like Taufik Kiemas and Cs.

    I have not seen any person prominent enough to be seated as President RI.

    A President needs to be given at least 10 years in his capacity. The politic and econo cycle is not easily changed within a short period of 5 years especially with Indonesian when there are too many smart ass trying to be too smart and or people who were trying to play the delay games causing too much problems for Indonesia’s development and progress.

    Someone even says by 2050 Jakarta will sink. This had been quite an issue for Indonesia because of the Soedyatmo Toll built on what the so call Cakar Ayam. Usually Cakar Ayam is being used for erosion prevention as seen in many coast of Taiwan and countries that are proned to tidal waves.

    North Jakarta actually is not suitable to have the toll built on water especially with people like developers from Pantai Indah Kapuk, and other developers, most of the waterways seemed to have been blocked rendering the Cakar Ayam useless. The last big flood we had already seen the toll submerge in water towards the area near the old road leading to the airport.

  7. EF says:

    While his tenure has been disastrous, SBY is definitely the most suitable choice. Remember that his ‘unfortunate’ tenure has been mostly influenced by external factors. But lots of bold moves have been made to sweep out the corrupted. Not perfect tenure yet, but given more control in the legislative arena, SBY definitely has the capability to lead this country. As much as I want to trust JK, I find it hard to trust him. The question would be who will be the VP when SBY is re-elected?

    As for Megawati, I doubt that she could do something meaningful to this country. Despite her charisma, she has no skill at all to administer the country. Always being the victim of greed of the people around her, I actually pity her. The VP could as well be JK, or if Sultan is willing to reduce his ambition a bit to VP, Sultan would be the better choice.

    Sultan is actually my second best favorite candidate for presidency, because of his charisma and his experience in local arena. Already a leader, his problem would be to select the best person as VP. I just hope he would not pick unpopular VP. As I said before, he could just settle his ambition to just becoming a VP. If so, the best pair would be SBY-Sultan. Sadly, without strong party to back up the pair, they could as well be wasted, just like SBY has been wasted all this time.

    Yeah, in the end, only three will be the strong candidates for presidency.

  8. Kancil says:

    SBY has made succesful is a fact everyone can see. Rehabilitation for Aceh after tsunami was, feace for Aceh after along time couldn’nt do. His econimics team is trustful by other country, it made Indonesia become a member of G-20 country defeat Singapura. SBY also good in macro economics and a Doctor in economics agriculture. He hard to the corruptors, he doesn’t enrich himself and his family. He let his son’s father in-law go to jail. We can compare it which Mega released Akbar Tanjung case.
    He release Indonesia from IMF traps. Many world leaders salut for him, eg: John Howard (Aus):”SBY is the best president along Indonesian history”
    Lee Kwan Yeuw (Sin): “You are(SBY) a good leader in crisis situation”.
    US has stopped its military embargo. A smart leader like him never need to steal Mega’s concept nor her team.
    So what kind leader is we need? A clean, trustful, charism, smart and good integrity leader? He is SBY. The world prove it.

  9. ria says:

    I support SBY,,,,,
    He is a good leader…
    He is a trustful, smart, honesty leader…..

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