Rupiah Stability

Sep 1st, 2006, in Business & Economy, by

The Indonesian rupiah's recent relative stability proves Indonesia is on the right track, says booster-man Stephen Schwartz.

The head of the Indonesia branch of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Stephen Schwartz, says that the continued stability of the rupiah, and even strength, is a reflection of the trust held in the Indonesian economy by investors.

It also shows the external position of Indonesia is improving, the balance of trade is in surplus, portfolios are strong, the IHSG rating is high, and bonds are being bought up by foreigners.

In the middle of 2006, he said, the slight weakness in the rupiah was caused by the withdrawal of funds, taken out and placed in foreign banks due to the hiking of interest rates overseas.

Meanwhile a representative from Standard Chartered, Fauzi Ichsan, predicts, boldly perhaps, that the rupiah will strengthen in the forthcoming months to a range of 8500 to 8800 rupiah per dollar. Currently it is at 9100. He attributes this possible fortitude in the currency to the trade surplus and not to any influx of funds into the country.

However into 2007 Fauzi says regional currencies will generally weaken, due to global factors, and the rupiah will inhabit the 8.700 9.000 range.


5 Comments on “Rupiah Stability”

  1. avatar RADEN says:

    Today 1 USD = 11,800 Rph,
    why our currency is weakening against sickening USA economy turmoil ?

    1 SGD = 7,900 Rph
    why a BIG country like Indonesia keep on loosing x’change rate to a tiny red dot Sgp?

    And the SBY cabinet want to bail-out Bumi Resources / Bakrie group ? Common guys .. where is our economy direction is heading on ?

  2. avatar dragonwall says:

    The lack of knowledge in the real Indonesian economy and being undermine by corrupt official had led to the real Rupiah weakening.

    representative from Standard Chartered, Fauzi Ichsan, predicts, boldly perhaps, that the rupiah will strengthen in the forthcoming months to a range of 8500 to 8800 rupiah per dollar. Currently it is at 9100.

    and

    However into 2007 Fauzi says regional currencies will generally weaken, due to global factors, and the rupiah will inhabit the 8.700 9.000 range.

    Today 1 USD = 11,800 Rph,
    why our currency is weakening against sickening USA economy turmoil ?

    Will definitely indicates that most people are still in dreamland.

    How about trying around 13,000.

    Each day the Indonesian Government were unable to stop rampant corruption and mass manipulation in within the DPR and MPR and the right person to revamp the BI and Justice Ministry, the rupiah will keep sliding even if the dollar continues to weaken.

    What those from IMF and money manager knows are paper back. Not the real world where the rupiahs live.

    This will eventually lead to another run on the staples and the circle keep running in the same way as it had and another hyper inflation sets in.

    Raden

    why a BIG country like Indonesia keep on loosing x’change rate to a tiny red dot Sgp?

    And the SBY cabinet want to bail-out Bumi Resources / Bakrie group ? Common guys .. where is our economy direction is heading on ?

    When a country stand on time, it doesn’t move as though it was 12 years ago. Criminal on the rise. Instability in term of security then how would there be anyone wanting to invest in Indonesia. Besides the saturated market on Indonesian products had not keep up with the trend. Continue to produce with OEM and exporting to an already slumping world market will eventually lead to a trade surplus.

    Those on the top are just seat warmers.

    The two very crucial mandatory requirements of the Indonesian Government is that they need to ensure the outdated law and BI needs immediate attention. These two factors when changed will give the government more credibility in international term. From there on then will there be stability and security.

    Insturcting the governmental and private sector to keep up with changing trend with better benefits to exporters, manufacturers and investors.

    I see no reason why someone is willing to come to Indonesia. They could go elsewhere to make their investments.

    Corrupt officials like JK should be remove from office for his incompetency being unable to compliment a President and ARB should be remove for being involve in the Porong mess as well as buying his way through Parliaments so that he keeps his wallet fat and not atone to the project which he has interest in.

  3. avatar Purba Negoro says:

    Dragonwall,
    you highlight you utter stupidity and total ignorance on even econmic matters.
    A strong US dollar to Asian currencies means benefit to Asian exporter- it make thir products much cheaper regardless of production costs due to advantageous exchange rate of US purchaser.

    Then- you ignorantly argue against pegging. The Renminbi is pegged artifically to the US dollar appox 10 RMB to $1 USD- with value very carefully controlled by the Chinese to make Chiense production costs and export costs the most competitive in the world. HCinese currcny has remained essentially static for ten years- allwoing Government to plan economic strategems wihout mitigating factor of availablity of funds and purchase power parity issues.
    Surely a good argument for pegging.

    Srii Mulyani just won Asia’s best Finance Minsiter award.
    She used to be on the board of directors for the IMF.

    Hasn’t Singke-pura’s housing economy shrunk by over 46%- over past year, and retail sector shrunk by 8% and increasing?

    China’s forecast growth for 2009 is around 8.5 %
    Nice try Dragonwall
    he country’s overall economic growth, which is expected to

    I quote:

    BEIJING (Reuters) – UBS on Monday lowered its forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2009 to 8.0 percent from 8.8 percent, citing a much weaker global growth outlook and forecasts of a deeper and longer U.S. recession.

    It is the second time in less than three months that UBS has lowered its forecast for Chinese GDP growth next year.

    The bank’s China economist, Tao Wang, also lowered her forecast for GDP growth this year to 9.6 percent from 10 percent.

    here:

    ” I am optimistic the outlook for 2009 may be slightly better than predicted by the government. Though the government-predicted growth rate for 2009 is 6.2 percent, there is a strong possibility the growth rate will attain between 6.4 and 6.7 percent.

    Moreover, the nominal GDP will deviate significantly. The first and second quarters of 2008 already produced a nominal GDP of Rp. 2,357.7 trillion. Based on previous experience, the nominal GDP will continue to grow in the third and fourth quarters.

    Thus, a nominal GDP of Rp. 4,800 trillion is within reach for the economy this year. This figure is 21 percent higher than in 2007. Still, judging from the rate of nominal growth in first and second quarters at 22.5 percent and 27.9 percent respectively, a rate of growth for the whole year of 21 percent remains a conservative prediction.

    Therefore, the government’s forecast of a nominal GDP of Rp. 5,000 trillion in 2009 will be far too low compared to what can be achieved for 2008. My own prediction for 2009 is the Indonesian nominal GDP may reach Rp. 5,500-5,700 trillion.

    Thatnumber will ensure a much lower debt-to-GDP ratio, an important number for the government.

    I am optimistic about the Indonesian economy going forward. Such a sizable nominal GDP would translate into about US$610 billion, far higher than the $419 billion which Goldman Sachs predicted Indonesia ought to have by 2010, to be well on its way to ranking seventh among world economic powers by 2050.

    Singapore’s 2009 economic growth could drop lower than 3 per cent?

    Sorry Dragonwall- shown again to be full of cheap, Glodok gossip, Slipi Stories, Tebet truths, all Karawaci Chinatown crap.
    See- you Fujian idiots have no idea what you’re doing, let alone blabbing about

  4. avatar dragonwall says:

    Here we go again … you and you yesterday news copying and pasting trying to show how educated you are and like you said you have really proven your stupidity is beyond shadow of doubts by saying

    you highlight you utter stupidity and total ignorance on even econmic matters. A strong US dollar to Asian currencies means benefit to Asian exporter- it make thir products much cheaper regardless of production costs due to advantageous exchange rate of US purchaser.

    By thinking no one knows about that. And when you say

    Then- you ignorantly argue against pegging. The Renminbi is pegged artifically to the US dollar appox 10 RMB to $1 USD- with value very carefully controlled by the Chinese to make Chiense production costs and export costs the most competitive in the world. HCinese currcny has remained essentially static for ten years- allwoing Government to plan economic strategems wihout mitigating factor of availablity of funds and purchase power parity issues.

    That the RMB is pegged at 10 to 1 USD? Hmmm trying to figure out since the when the USD was pegged 10 to 1 USD and as I knew it was earlier 8 + and now it had strengthened to 7 + to 1 USD. And you said that artificially?

    Srii Mulyani just won Asia’s best Finance Minsiter award.
    She used to be on the board of directors for the IMF.

    Right, right, right …. So you think that you are the only one who knows about that? Because she used to be on the IMF Board, and what does that represent? That she is smarter? You think so? I don’t. If she is then the Indonesian would have been for the better today but yet on the surface it is growing but in fact it is worsening.

    And

    Hasn’t Singke-pura’s housing economy shrunk by over 46%- over past year, and retail sector shrunk by 8% and increasing?

    What does that got to do with Indonesian economy? I guess your thinking is what’s wrong with that! An economy is an economy without having to check on their background and foundation, right? Anyway Indonesia is bigger and stronger, right? Well that was smart. Dumb idiot.

    So with

    Nice try Dragonwall
    he country’s overall economic growth, which is expected to

    You quote:

    BEIJING (Reuters) – UBS on Monday lowered its forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2009 to 8.0 percent from 8.8 percent, citing a much weaker global growth outlook and forecasts of a deeper and longer U.S. recession. It is the second time in less than three months that UBS has lowered its forecast for Chinese GDP growth next year.The bank’s China economist, Tao Wang, also lowered her forecast for GDP growth this year to 9.6 percent from 10 percent.

    A forecast is a forecast and they are even predicting a lower growth? Why? Like what you say if the Chinese Government is pegging ARTIFICIALLY 10 to 1 USD they should be forecasting higher growth, sow why are they predicting a lower growth? I, see you are so smart that their exporting is slowing coming their way, right?

    here:
    I am optimistic the outlook for 2009 may be slightly better than predicted by the government.

    Right, you are even smarter than them.

    Though the government-predicted growth rate for 2009 is 6.2 percent, there is a strong possibility the growth rate will attain between 6.4 and 6.7 percent. Moreover, the nominal GDP will deviate significantly. The first and second quarters of 2008 already produced a nominal GDP of Rp. 2,357.7 trillion. Based on previous experience, the nominal GDP will continue to grow in the third and fourth quarters. Thus, a nominal GDP of Rp. 4,800 trillion is within reach for the economy this year. This figure is 21 percent higher than in 2007. Still, judging from the rate of nominal growth in first and second quarters at 22.5 percent and 27.9 percent respectively, a rate of growth for the whole year of 21 percent remains a conservative prediction. Therefore, the government’s forecast of a nominal GDP of Rp. 5,000 trillion in 2009 will be far too low compared to what can be achieved for 2008. My own prediction for 2009 is the Indonesian nominal GDP may reach Rp. 5,500-5,700 trillion

    Nice figuring..

    How about this!
    1 USD = 8,000 so for example 10 billion USD it is 80 trillion Rupiahs and so for I USD to be 12,000 it will be 120 trillion. Horay! Horay! So that is growth? And that figure will

    ensure a much lower debt-to-GDP ratio, an important number for the government.?

    And you also said

    I am optimistic about the Indonesian economy going forward. Such a sizable nominal GDP would translate into about US$610 billion, far higher than the $419 billion which Goldman Sachs predicted Indonesia ought to have by 2010, to be well on its way to ranking seventh among world economic powers by 2050.

    Can you tell us how reliable is that? And so as for

    Singapore’s 2009 economic growth could drop lower than 3 per cent?

    Singapore always make their forecast as low as possible in anticipation of unforeseen circumstance and most of the time they are right. But those figures are real. Do you understand what is real and what is not? Indonesia is not.

    Now

    Sorry Dragonwall- shown again to be full of cheap, Glodok gossip, Slipi Stories, Tebet truths, all Karawaci Chinatown crap.
    See- you Fujian idiots have no idea what you’re doing, let alone blabbing about

    How about what I said that the always prevailing propaganda, putdowns and name calling just seemed to be the only way out for you.
    Indonesia can continue with this

    Continue to produce with OEM and exporting to an already slumping world market will eventually lead to a trade surplus.

    And you can call that growth, it is fine with me.

    Go on professing your growth and we shall see hat is forthcoming.

    You will just get blown away like wind and dust. And you can also bring forward Sri Mulyani to discuss her economic

    I have said what I foresee because the more the Chinese made their forecast it will then make you a smarter person right?

    Don’t believe in what the Chinese or Singaporean says. Go ahead with your calculation and prediction so that the figurtes makes you and Sri Mulyani happy.

    How could a Bego understand between book and real figures.

  5. avatar dragonwall says:

    So what now! Didn’t I say when you and your buddy AAB see something you guys pick and choose linking them to yesterdays news and the whole IM watch closely how you expose yourself as a mere second hand news champion and and considered that something with “a punch”!

    No wonder Achmad said to AAB ” Shut the f*ck up”.

    Let me just tell you what is consider something to be new to your so smart economic minds when you tried to bring Sri Mulyani to task and thinking that we are fake.

    Excerpt from Indonesia Media at http://www.indonesiamedia.com

    Rupiah Tabrak Rp:11,200/US$
    Krisis Mulai Terasa di Indonesia
    Belakangan 3 bulan ini harga baja merosot dar US$1,150 menjadi US$730/ton. 12 pabrik paku dan 2 pabrik seng telah tutup. 70,000 terancam di PHK 80 percent exkspor meubel dari 5 perusahaan anggota Asmindo terpaksa dibatal.

    SBY PASTIKAN INDONESIA TIDAK AKAN PAKAI IMF karena “Rakyat Indonesia beberapa tahun lalu punya pengalaman negatif dengan IMF. Indonesia tidak menggunakan resep IMF” kata Yudhoyono di Beijing.

    100,000 pengusaha siap PHK karyawan atau 10 percent dari 1 juta anggota Apindo.

    So wht does that reflects? Show me you economic wiz. Bring Sri Mulyani forward and see how good she fare when Indonesia openly admits of such failure meaning it is also her failure, right? So what good is the what..your so called award!, do to Indonesia?

    Like what Achmad said to AAB “SHUT THE F*CK UP”

    I am sure many of them had expose you as a Chinese hater, unwilling to accept what is fact, professing your ill conceive mind with total propaganda and putdowns with words borrowed from the wikipedia and take them to be you mastery in writing and making people think that you are smart with many of your buddy who lickspittle you and AAB who were waiting in anticipation to applaud and praise.

    So is this barely coherent English substandard to make you understand about economics, or are you still not convinced of what your own Government exposing your own people’s mistake by not taking advice from other countries?

    Like what I used to tell you. It is the cimple calculation that made people look so little with the mind boggling actuarial calculation that were meant to deceive the Indonesian people into believing that Indonesia is strong and stable.

    How dare you know nothing bring up Goldman Sachs prediction into your forecast. Do you knwo what does IMF and Goldman Sachs represent? They work closely. So is the DOS and INS they work closely. Have you seen the INS being expose in court for relying reports from DOS?

    It is the similar sequence that they work with synchronous ability to deny a persons right. Same as when the IMF they work in synchronous ability a scheme to thei own benefit. Not yours.

    INDONESIA HAS TO RELY ON THEIR OWN. Not Burhannudin, Not Miranda, Not Sri. and definitly not you.

    One do not bring a mistake and pretends that the whole community is at fault. Similarly the Indonesian riot? Bring those people to justice. I am sure not all Chinese wronged the pris. But for you it is all the Chinese that had done such great injustice to you that caused you to be so poor that you whin and sigh all the time.

    Go ahead grab Sri Mulyani by the legs and kiss my arse.

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