Philippines: two major insurgencies, an out-of-control violent crime rate, rampant kidnappings, same corruption issues, etc.<
Odinius, Indonesia always gets a remarkably good press from you. Has it to do with the fact that, if I understand correctly, you are not actually living there?
And you are loading the dice a bit with your comparisons. As far as the Philippines is concerned: I lived for years in Cebu, the second or third city of the Philippines in size, and we might go and live there again. I didn't notice that "out -of- control violent crime rate" nor the "rampant kidnappings". The dwindling activities of the NPA can also hardly be called a "major insurgency".
We have crossed swords about this issue before and I repeat that, when it comes to the long term legitimacy of a government, state sponsored violence is of far greater importance than 'private enterprise' criminality (of which it is difficult to obtain reliable data anyway). I regard the massacres of 1965 also as state sponsored violence in the sense that the military had a major hand in it and took over government after that. Well now, it is obvious that Indonesia has a far worse record on that score than the Philippines. If I remember correctly you didn't want to look at 1965 because you only wanted to take contemporary trends into account. But is what happened then not also in some form a part of the present? The anonymous reviewer in The Economist of Andre Beatty's book "A Shadow Falls …" ends his review with this sentence: "Darker than the shadow of a putative future of Islamic orthodoxy is a bloody past that is both unexpiated and unexplained".
The Philippines doesn't have such an undigested bit of history in its recent past.
Also: anyone who compares the obvious symbols and rites of national unity in Indonesia and the Philippines must notice that Filipinos are far more relaxed about these things. I have always seen that as a sign that they take the unity of the state far more for granted than is the case with Indonesians.
Thailand: some advantages over Indonesia in the economy and infrastructure, but also large-scale insurgency in the south, all the same corruption issues, military rule, etc.
It is obvious to me that Thailand, which has as a state deep roots in history and has in the monarchy a far more unifying institution than a presidency can ever be, is far less likely to become a failed state than a sprawling archipelago state as Indonesia, which owes its unity, such as it is, to a colonial regime regarded as having been illegitimate.